SA DGA Pre Seeding Meeting and AGM
SA Durum Growers Association will be holding a meeting at Blyth Cinema on Wednesday 4 April at 9am (registration at 8.30).
This will be followed by the AGM. All interested growers are encouraged to attend.
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Key Points
- Ending stock levels for 0607 for Canada, EU and US combined are forecast at a 3 year low
- Focus will begin to turn to new crop as Canadian, US and Australian planting draws near
- Larger crops forecast to be planted in Canada and the US while North African crops decline
Global Wrap Up for 2006/07 Season
Taking a look at the revised figures for the 0607 season, world production has been estimated by IGC at 35.2mmt, an upward revision since the last report, bolstered by increases in Italian, Spanish and Canadian production. StatsCan’s most recent review of Canadian production was revised from 3.5 to 3.8mmt.
IGC revised world trade from 6.6 to 6.8mmt and ending stocks for Canada, US and EU combined are pegged at 3.7mmt, up from their 3.3mmt estimate in September last year. Stock levels are at a 3 year low with carryout numbers for these countries in 0405 and 0506 at 5.1mmt. So the situation and has improved this season.
While Australian production has been more difficult to estimate this season AWB estimates are 160 – 190 000t nationally with 30 – 40k in SA and 130 – 150k in NNSW.
Looking to 0708…
Canada
The market will begin to focus its attention on the 2007/08 season in the coming months as we move closer to new crop planting for Canada, US and Australia. Some preliminary estimates for planting intentions are available however it is very early in the season. At this stage trade estimates for Canadian plantings range from an increase of 10 – 15%. Using trend yields and a 10% increase in production, production would be 4.3mmt. StatsCan will release their planting intentions on 24 April. Canadian planting occurs in May/June.
EU
EU plantings are anticipated to increase by 4% with a decline in Spanish production more than offset by increases in Italy and France. EU crops are generally in very good condition and are further advanced than normal due to the extremely mild winter they have experienced. However they remain at risk of frost damage and winterkill for this reason. The map below shows the much warmer than normal temperatures experienced over Europe during the winter. Minimum temperatures in Spain, Italy and France have been more than 5 degrees higher than normal in many parts.
US
USDA have not released 0708 figures as yet however private research group Informa Economics early forecast is for larger production. However with only a small amount of stock carried over from this season, ending stocks and the overall US situation is expected to remain tight with similar ending stock numbers to this year. Acres planted to durum will come under pressure from corn this year as extremely high corn values are being seen as a result of huge increases in the demand for ethanol.
North Africa
Looking at the demand side of the market, North Africa is once again experiencing a dry season after harvesting a very good crop in 0607. Morocco may see production at only 50% of last years levels if rain is not received during March and April. Even if rain is received, production is still likely to be down 30 – 35%. This will boost demand for imported durum back to more normal levels as local production will be able to meet less domestic needs. Harvest for North Africa typically occurs during May/June so rain this month would be very timely. This is certainly an area to watch.
View November Durum Market Update
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