AWB 2011/12 season estimated pool returns (EPRs) have largely been revised down modestly by $2 - $8 a tonne as wheat prices dropped over recent weeks. The exception is durum grades in the East Coast pool which have risen by $7 a tonne.
AWB’s 2011/12 EPRs for APW wheat remains at $265 a tonne and ANW noodle wheat is $280 a tonne in the WA Pool, APW is $260 a tonne in the SA Pool and $264 a tonne in the Eastern Pool (FOB, excl GST).
AWB’s Jon White said: “Significant increases in production estimates in Argentina, Australia and Canada, combined with substantial supply of cheap wheat out of South America, has placed further pressure on global wheat prices in recent weeks.”
“With harvest nearing completion and consistent farmer selling of higher quality wheat grades Australian wheat prices have reduced,” Mr White said.
“Wheat market fundamentals are currently well known with the northern hemisphere crops in dormancy , southern hemisphere crops known and demand steady therefore the major factors influencing price in the short term will continue to be global macro economic conditions.
“There is a possibility of a technical rally in wheat futures early in the New Year as US-based investment funds rebalance their portfolios however for the rally to be sustainable it will need to be back by wheat market fundamentals.
“The only other bullish market fundamental on the horizon is that Black Sea crops have gone into dormancy in less than ideal conditions increasing the chances of a winter kill event. Should this occur it will be positive for wheat prices however we will have to wait until March/April next year to get a clearer picture on the Black Sea crop.
“Farmers need to be diligent when comparing wheat pool returns and should take into account the timing and accuracy of estimated pool returns as some do not updated guidance regularly. AWB regularly updates its EPRs to accurately reflect the current state of the market to reflect our view of the market over the life of the pool giving farmers a realistic estimated value,” Mr White said.
Farmers wishing to investigate AWB’s range of grain marketing options for 2011/12 should contact their local AWB representative or ring the Grower Services Centre on 1800 4GRAIN (1800 447 246).
Media contact: Peter McBride 03 9268 7362 or 0417 662 451
|
WHEAT: EASTERN POOL - EPRs 2011/12 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, excluding GST) |
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
APH1 (14% protein) |
$359 |
Down $8 |
|
APH2 (13% protein) |
$354 |
Down $8 |
|
H1 (13% protein) |
$329 |
Down $8 |
|
H2 (11.5% protein) |
$292 |
Down $8 |
|
AUH2 (11.5% protein) |
$274 |
Down $8 |
|
APW1 (10.5% protein) |
$264 |
Down $8 |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$247 |
Down $7 |
|
SFE1 (Flat protein) |
$246 |
Down $8 |
|
AGP1(Flat protein) |
$239 |
Down $8 |
|
FED1 (Flat protein) |
$230 |
Down $2 |
|
SFW1 (Flat protein) |
$230 |
Down $2 |
|
GPSF (Flat protein) |
$230 |
Down $2 |
|
AH9 (Flat protein) |
$232 |
Down $5 |
|
DR1 (13% protein) |
$412 |
Up $7 |
|
DR2 (11.5% protein) |
$392 |
Up $7 |
|
DR3 (10% protein) |
$362 |
Up $7 |
|
DR9 (Flat protein) |
$255 |
Down $2 |
|
WHEAT: SA POOL - EPRs 2011/12 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, excluding GST) |
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
H1 (13% protein) |
$325 |
Down $8 |
|
H2 (11.5% protein) |
$288 |
Down $8 |
|
AUH2 (11.5% protein) |
$270 |
Down $3 |
|
APW1 (10.5% protein) |
$260 |
Down $8 |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$243 |
Down $7 |
|
AGP1(Flat protein) |
$235 |
Down $8 |
|
FED1 (Flat protein) |
$232 |
Down $6 |
|
FEDG (Flat protein) |
$222 |
Down $6 |
|
SFW1 (Flat protein) |
$232 |
Down $6 |
|
GPSF (Flat protein) |
$232 |
Down $6 |
|
AH9 (Flat protein) |
$237 |
Down $6 |
|
DR1 (13% protein) |
$405 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (11.5% protein) |
$385 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (10% protein) |
$355 |
Unchanged |
|
WHEAT: WA POOL - EPRs 2011/12 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, excluding GST) |
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
H1 (13% protein) |
$335 |
Down $5 |
|
H2 (11.5% protein) |
$315 |
Down $5 |
|
AUH2 (11.5% protein) |
$275 |
Down $5 |
|
APW2 (10% protein) |
$265 |
Down $5 |
|
APWN (10% protein) |
$265 |
Down $5 |
|
ANW1 (10.5% protein) |
$280 |
Down $5 |
|
ANW2 (Flat protein) |
$255 |
Down $5 |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$250 |
Down $2 |
|
AGP1 (Flat protein) |
$247 |
Down $5 |
|
AUW1 (Flat protein) |
$230 |
Unchanged |
|
SFT1 (Flat protein) |
$247 |
Down $5 |
|
FED1 (Flat protein) |
$230 |
Unchanged |