AWB has revised its price forecast for 2009/10 season wheat downward by $15 a tonne, giving an estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat of $290-300 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).
AWB’s Australian Commodity Management spokesman, Stuart Richardson, said that international demand for wheat remained slow, with lower demand compared to last season.
“Quite simply, the wheat market is in a slumber at present,” Mr Richardson said.
“Flour mills around the world have generally entered the new season with greater stocks in their supply line than the year before.
“Buyers have also taken comfort from the fact that production risk is diminishing in the northern hemisphere, with the winter wheat harvests almost complete in the United States and well advanced in the European Union and Black Sea region.
“It means that there is plenty of wheat available, competing for limited demand, so the fundamental market picture is bearish at this stage.
“The last real unknown for the market is how the Australian crop will turn out, so analysts will be watching our spring weather closely, to see if current production estimates are fulfilled,” Mr Richardson said.
Estimated returns for AWB’s 2008/09 wheat pools are holding steady, with the EPR for APW on $325 a tonne in the Western Pool and $330 a tonne in the Eastern Pool (FOB, excl GST).
AWB calculates pool estimates by balancing the best information about international wheat production, Australian crop predictions, world grain consumption patterns and possible financial currency fluctuations. All of these impact grower returns and pool estimates are updated regularly.
* WEA disclaimer - "AWB’s ability to export wheat in bulk is dependant on being granted reaccreditation under the Wheat Export Accreditation Scheme."
AWB media contact: Ian Desborough 03 9209 2335 or 0418 853 881
|
EASTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
APH2 (13% protein) |
$350 |
Unchanged |
|
AH1 (13% protein) |
$345 |
Unchanged |
|
AH2 (11.5% protein) |
$340 |
Unchanged |
|
AUH2 (Flat protein) |
$323 |
Unchanged |
|
APW1 (10.5% protein) |
$330 |
Unchanged |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$315 |
Unchanged |
|
AGP1 (Flat protein) |
$305 |
Unchanged |
|
AUW1 (Flat protein) |
$280 |
Unchanged |
|
HPS1 (Flat protein) |
$300 |
Unchanged |
|
AH9 (Flat protein) |
$255 |
Unchanged |
|
FED1 (Flat protein) |
$242 |
Unchanged |
|
SFW1 (Flat protein) |
$270 |
Unchanged |
|
DR1 (Flat protein) |
$510 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (Flat protein) |
$468 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$413 |
Unchanged |
|
|
|
|
|
EASTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
DR1 (Flat protein) |
$455 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (Flat protein) |
$430 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$375 |
Unchanged |
|
ADRF (Flat protein) |
$250 |
Unchanged |
|
|
|
|
|
WESTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
AH1 (13% protein) |
$341 |
Unchanged |
|
AH2 (11.5% protein) |
$335 |
Unchanged |
|
AUH2 (Flat protein) |
$316 |
Unchanged |
|
APW2 (10% protein) |
$325 |
Unchanged |
|
ANW1 (Flat protein) |
$318 |
Unchanged |
|
ANW2 (Flat protein) |
$303 |
Unchanged |
|
APWT (10% protein) |
$325 |
Unchanged |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$310 |
Unchanged |
|
AGP1 (Flat protein) |
$300 |
Unchanged |
|
AUW1 (Flat protein) |
$275 |
Unchanged |
|
SFT1 (Flat protein) |
$345 |
Unchanged |
|
FED1 (Flat protein) |
$235 |
Unchanged |
|
DR1 (Flat protein) |
$480 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (Flat protein) |
$450 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$400 |
Unchanged |
|
|
|
|
|
WESTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
ANW1 (Flat protein) |
$302 |
Unchanged |
|
ANW2 (Flat protein) |
$287 |
Unchanged |