AWB has revised its price forecast for 2009/10 season wheat downward by $5 a tonne, giving an estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat of $305-315 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).
AWB’s Australian Commodity Management spokesman, Stuart Richardson, said that wheat futures had softened on the back of updated forecasts of world supply and demand over the past fortnight.
“The northern hemisphere wheat harvest is proceeding apace and buyers are now seeing plenty of wheat available, which is adding the stocks from last year that are held by many countries,” Mr Richardson said.
“The United States is forecasting an increase in carryover at the end of the season and despite some issues, Russia Ukraine and Kazakhstan are still about to harvest large crops that need to find export demand.
“Recent rain across much of the Australian wheat belt has given the market some confidence in Australian crop estimates, notwithstanding the fact that our season still has a long way to go.
“Positive elements have been balanced a little by small declines in the European Union, Canada and Argentina, although the overall picture for buyers at present is one where choice is available.
“The Australian dollar is the other part of the equation and it continues to be relatively strong against the US dollar,” Mr Richardson said.
AWB calculates pool estimates by balancing the best information about international wheat production, Australian crop predictions, world grain consumption patterns and possible financial currency fluctuations. All of these impact grower returns and pool estimates are updated regularly.
Estimated returns for AWB’s 2008/09 wheat pools have also declined slightly due to deteriorating world values, with the EPR for APW down $2 a tonne, to $325 a tonne in the Western Pool and $330 a tonne in the Eastern Pool (FOB, excl GST).
AWB media contact: Ian Desborough 03 9209 2335 or 0418 853 881
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EASTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
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Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
APH2 (13% protein) |
$350 |
Down $2 |
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AH1 (13% protein) |
$345 |
Down $2 |
|
AH2 (11.5% protein) |
$340 |
Down $2 |
|
AUH2 (Flat protein) |
$323 |
Down $2 |
|
APW1 (10.5% protein) |
$330 |
Down $2 |
|
ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$315 |
Down $2 |
|
AGP1 (Flat protein) |
$305 |
Down $2 |
|
AUW1 (Flat protein) |
$280 |
Down $2 |
|
HPS1 (Flat protein) |
$300 |
Down $2 |
|
AH9 (Flat protein) |
$255 |
Down $2 |
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FED1 (Flat protein) |
$242 |
Down $2 |
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SFW1 (Flat protein) |
$270 |
Down $2 |
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DR1 (Flat protein) |
$510 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (Flat protein) |
$468 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$413 |
Unchanged |
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EASTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
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Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
DR1 (Flat protein) |
$455 |
Unchanged |
|
DR2 (Flat protein) |
$430 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$375 |
Unchanged |
|
ADRF (Flat protein) |
$250 |
Unchanged |
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WESTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
AH1 (13% protein) |
$341 |
Down $2 |
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AH2 (11.5% protein) |
$335 |
Down $2 |
|
AUH2 (Flat protein) |
$316 |
Down $2 |
|
APW2 (10% protein) |
$325 |
Down $2 |
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ANW1 (Flat protein) |
$318 |
Down $4 |
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ANW2 (Flat protein) |
$303 |
Down $4 |
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APWT (10% protein) |
$325 |
Down $2 |
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ASW1 (Flat protein) |
$310 |
Down $2 |
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AGP1 (Flat protein) |
$300 |
Down $2 |
|
AUW1 (Flat protein) |
$275 |
Down $2 |
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SFT1 (Flat protein) |
$345 |
Down $2 |
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FED1 (Flat protein) |
$235 |
Down $2 |
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DR1 (Flat protein) |
$480 |
Unchanged |
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DR2 (Flat protein) |
$450 |
Unchanged |
|
DR3 (Flat protein) |
$400 |
Unchanged |
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WESTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive): |
|
|
|
|
|
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate |
Estimated Pool Return |
Change |
|
ANW1 (Flat protein) |
$302 |
Down $4 |
|
ANW2 (Flat protein) |
$287 |
Down $4 |
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