AWB has raised its forecast wheat pool returns for the 2010/11 season by up to $40 a tonne, as the world wheat supply/demand balance comes under pressure from dry conditions in Russia, Kazakhstan and northern Europe.

AWB’s estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat in the Western Pool is now $295 a tonne, up $35, ANW1 noodle wheat is now $310 a tonne, up $40, and APW wheat in the Eastern Pool is up $36, to a new EPR of $290 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).

AWB General Manager Commodities, Mitch Morison, said although the United States is holding considerable wheat stocks from the previous season and is having another good year, over recent weeks the market has responded to cutbacks in production estimates in Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and parts of northern Europe.

“When you see the production estimate drop for one country by a few million tonnes it is a still a small amount, but when similar revisions apply across a number of key exporters the impact adds up,” Mr Morison said.

“It’s not just dry weather either; Canada has faced the opposite situation with excessively wet conditions during their crop planting period and parts of eastern Europe are now seeing quality downgrading due to rain on their harvest.

“The quality issues are likely to create opportunities for Australian wheat sales, as consumers of Russian and higher protein German wheats will need to source grain from alternative suppliers; this translates as increased demand for Australian wheat into African and Middle Eastern markets.

“The northern hemisphere harvests still have some time to run and it will be many weeks yet before an accurate quality and tonnage picture appears for all regions, however the market now seems to have broken firmly away from its low levels of a couple of months ago and as our season proceeds, that is very good news for Australian growers.

“During June we had quite a number of growers contract wheat to AWB via our early commitment program, so we are taking advantage of the improved prices to assist our hedging program associated with that grain,” Mr Morison said.

AWB media contact: Ian Desborough 03 9209 2335 or 0418 853 881

WHEAT: EASTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2010/11 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, excluding GST)
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
APH1 (14% protein)	$315	Up    $38
APH2 (13% protein)	$310	Up    $38
AH14 (14% protein)	$310	Up    $36
AH1 (13% protein)	$306	Up    $40
AH2 (11.5% protein)	$300	Up    $38
H2G (11.5% protein)	$300	Up    $38
AUH2 (Flat protein)	$283	Up    $39
APW1 (10.5% protein)	$290	Up    $36
ASW1 (Flat protein)	$280	Up    $36
SFE1 (Flat protein)	$315	Up    $36
SFE2 (Flat protein)	$295	Up    $31
AGP1 (Flat protein)	$275	Up    $36
HPS1 (Flat protein)	$265	Up    $36
FED1 (Flat protein)	$255	Up    $36
AUW1 (Flat protein)	$250	Up    $36
SFW1 (Flat protein)	$255	Up    $36
GPSF (Flat protein)	$255	Up    $36
AH9 (Flat protein)	$265	Up    $38
DR1 (Flat protein)	$305	Up    $35
DR2 (Flat protein)	$285	Up    $35
DR3 (Flat protein)	$265	Up    $35
WHEAT: WESTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2010/11 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, excluding GST)
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
AH1 (13% protein)	$310	Up    $35
AH2 (11.5% protein)	$305	Up    $35
BR1 (12% protein)	$315	Up    $35
ER1 (12% protein)	$315	Up    $35
AUH2 (Flat protein)	$290	Up    $35
APW2 (10% protein)	$295	Up    $35
ANW1 (Flat protein)	$310	Up    $40
ANW2 (Flat protein)	$285	Up    $35
APWT (10% protein)	$295	Up    $35
ASW1 (Flat protein)	$285	Up    $35
AGP1 (Flat protein)	$275	Up    $35
AUW1 (Flat protein)	$245	Up    $35
SFT1 (Flat protein)	$315	Up    $35
SFT3 (Flat protein)	$295	Up    $35
FED1 (Flat protein)	$245	Up    $35
DR1 (Flat protein)	$305	Up    $35
DR2 (Flat protein)	$285	Up    $35

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