Estimated Pool Returns for AWB’s 2001/02 National Pool were increased today by between $3/tonne and $10/tonne.
General Manager of AWB’s National Pool Sarah Scales, said firmer international prices and the deteriorating condition of the Western Australian and Queensland crops were significant factors in the upward revision of estimates.
“US wheat futures prices have rallied over the past fortnight due to a number of concerns including the wet weather affecting the already reduced European wheat crop, unexpected sales of US soft wheat to several EU countries, and continuing dryness in Canada and Australia.” Ms Scales said.
International grain markets remain highly volatile however.
“Much of the recent gains have been built on less than ideal conditions for wheat, corn and soybean crops around the world. The market will remain highly sensitive to changes in production outlook, and we’ve seen this to some extent in the last few days with prices reacting negatively to wetter and cooler forecasts for the US Midwest.
AWB has strengthened prices for lower protein wheat as a result of the recent narrowing in the wide price spread between soft and hard wheat.
“Smaller Soft Red Winter and Soft White wheat production in the US will see carryout stocks drawn down significantly in these grades this year, whilst a lower EU soft wheat crop is also expected. On the other hand, US HRW production forecasts have improved steadily from the market’s pre-harvest concerns, “ Ms Scales said.
“The situation in Western Australia and Queensland in particular is of great concern for both growers and AWB’s National Pool,” Ms Scales said.
“Elsewhere in Australia crops are generally on target to produce average yields. Some parts of Northern New South Wales are showing very good potential at this stage.”
AWB also increased the 2000/01 Estimated Pool Return for Feed wheat by $5/tonne, and ASC by $20.00.
AWB (International) Limited’s pool estimates are released fortnightly. The next update will be released on Monday 6th August 2001 at 5pm EST.
For more information please contact Alana Wastle AWB Limited, on 03 9209 2555.