AWB National Pool estimates have increased further, reflecting a volatile world market with substantial increases in new season 2002/03 Estimated Pool Returns (EPRs), and further consolidation in 2001/02 estimates.
General Manager AWB National Pool Sarah Scales said the majority of pay grade estimates for 2002/03 had been increased by $20 per tonne (FOB, GST exclusive), taking benchmark APW to $282/t, and APH to $309.50/t. Estimates for ASWN (noodle wheat) have increased by $25/t, to $313/t.
Old season estimates have generally increased by $3/t, with 2001/02 APW now $251/t, while ASWN has been increased $6/t to $274/t.
Ms Scales said the increase in estimates followed some significant moves in the market in recent weeks, influenced by the reduced crop estimates in key global wheat exporting countries.
"We are operating in a highly volatile market at the moment, and in past weeks we have seen some significant rallies in the US futures market, followed by some equally sharp falls," Ms Scales said.
"In some cases US futures have fluctuated by the equivalent of $35/t during the course of the week, and managing the pricing and hedging decisions within that environment becomes increasingly challenging.
"AWB National Pool’s active hedging is aimed at capturing the gains in the market and limiting any future downside potential," Ms Scales said.
The USDA last week released its monthly world agricultural supply and demand forecasts, in which it reduced combined production of major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada and EU) by 10.8 million tonnes from last month, due to dry conditions in Canada and Australia, and prolonged rains and flooding in parts of the EU (largely Germany).
"However, much of that change had been factored into the market leading up to the release of the report, and was partly offset by increased production estimates in Russia and Eastern Europe," Ms Scales said.
The next AWB National Pool update will be released at 5pm, Monday, September 30th.