AWB today announced the first price range for the 2006/07 AWB National Pool, with an Estimated Pool Return (EPR) for the benchmark Australian Premium White wheat (APW) pay grade of between $195 - $205 per tonne (FOB GST exclusive), and an EPR for durum pay grade APDR of $220 - $230/t.
For APW these estimates represent a $25/t increase from the opening estimates for the 2005/06 Pool, and are $3 - $13 above the current 2005/06 EPRs.
AWB National Pool Manager, David Johnson said while the international wheat market remained fiercely competitive, the new season price estimates had benefited from the reduced global stocks of hard wheat.
"The market is finding support from concerns over the potential of winter kill from extreme cold temperatures in the European Union, Russia and Ukraine," Mr Johnson said.
"The size and quality of the northern hemisphere crops will remain important for price direction.
"However at this stage all indications are pointing to a smaller crop in the United States, with dry weather conditions for the southern wheat belt providing underlying price support," Mr Johnson said.
Mr Johnson said it was only in the very early stages of the Pool life, and the size and quality of the northern hemisphere crops, particularly as they emerge from dormancy in the coming months, would remain a key for price direction.
Mr Johnson said AWB issued its APW estimate early to enable growers to make important cropping and varietal decisions for the coming winter season. APW is AWB's benchmark wheat pay grade, as it is the largest binning line and varietal pool in Australia.
"Obviously this is only an estimate and is subject to changes in the marketplace, but it is made on our best forecasts on current market conditions," said Mr Johnson.
A full range of EPRs for each AWB National Pool pay grade will be released in the coming months.