SA Market Wrap

By Chris Ward

5th August 2022

 

The Bureau of Meteorology recently released its three-month outlook for August to October and the current weather patterns look set to continue. The BoM is stating that there is a greater than 80% chance of above median rainfall for the August to October period for the whole of the Australian cropping region except for Western Australia. They also predict that most of the eastern two thirds of the mainland has double the normal chance of unusually high rainfall for the same period. This will no doubt be welcomed by some, though there will be others out there who would much prefer some warm, sunny days to help those crops that were planted late and are already very wet. The BoM is also saying that minimum and maximum temperatures will be above the medians for much of the cropping belt.

Overseas markets have been under pressure as some normality returned to futures markets. With an export pathway seemingly established through the Black Sea region, focus has turned to fundamentals which generally saw markets move lower as the realization that there is ample wheat and canola in the exporting countries to supply immediate demand. There is plenty to still play out in the Black Sea and questions remain whether 50Mmt of wheat can be exported from that region as that is what the market is factoring into its calculations.  US and European wheat all trended lower over recent weeks with canola in Canada and Europe following a similar pathway. The same cannot be said for row crops in the US which have been firm on the basis that the weather forecast for that region is looking dry and hot. Needless to say, newswires will continue to influence markets however it has been refreshing to see market commentary focused on fundamentals of late.

South Australia has recorded a relatively dry July and forecast rain for August will be welcomed to bolster crop potential and support the lush growth. On the lower Eyre Peninsula, the early sown crops that got up and away in late April are looking as good as ever. Canola is well into flowering and the odd wheat crop is poking a head out. Cleve field days is known to have had some wet and wild weather in the past and this year’s early forecast looks true to form.

 

 

Chris Ward has recently started as the new AWB Territory Manager for the Mid-North and Yorke Peninsula of South Australia. Growing up on his family’s farm near Cunliffe, Chris has been in Agribusiness roles his whole working career and is very passionate about farming. He spent many years with Elders, Landmark and most recently with the Commonwealth Bank, giving him valuable experience to provide local knowledge and service.

The Mid-North and Yorke Peninsula regions, as well as the Maitland and Crystal Brook Grain Flow sites are important to our business and we are pleased to have Chris on board to provide the level of customer service required to help us grow in the region.