There are signs starting to appear in the world wheat market that wheat prices might begin to stabilise and as a result, AWB has confirmed its price forecasts for 2009/10 season wheat are holding steady, with an estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat of $265-275 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).

AWB General Manager Commodities, Mitch Morison, said that while there were still plenty of negative factors for prices in the world supply/demand balance, looking forward there are several positive influences at work.

“World wheat prices have reduced substantially in response to two years of large production, but farmers also sowed a lot less wheat this year in the northern hemisphere due to the price fall,” Mr Morison said.

“With wheat so cheap farmers will sow less again for next season and customers are just starting to get nervous at what that might mean for wheat availability next year – the price signal simply has to be there to encourage greater production.

“We know there is a big crop in the world this year, but there remains a lot of risk for the Australian crop, so the assumptions that Australia will add substantial tonnage to the world surplus may be a little overdone.

“There is also a stabilising influence with the Russian intervention program supporting prices for Russian wheat.

“We can’t get around the reality that world demand is very soft at present and that there is plenty of wheat available, however if northern hemisphere growers cut back it might be a different picture by the time a lot of the Australian crop is being harvested and sold.

“Time will tell,” Mr Morison said.

For specialist grades, AWB’s EPR for 2009/10 noodle wheat ANW1 is $250-260 a tonne (FOB, excl GST) and durum DR1 is $325-335 a tonne (FOB, excl GST) .

Estimated returns for AWB’s 2008/09 wheat pools are holding steady, with the EPR for APW on $325 a tonne in the Western Pool and $330 a tonne in the Eastern Pool (FOB, excl GST).

* WEA disclaimer - "AWB’s ability to export wheat in bulk is dependant on being granted reaccreditation under the Wheat Export Accreditation Scheme."

AWB media contact: Ian Desborough 03 9209 2335 or 0418 853 881

EASTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive):
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
APH2 (13% protein)	$350	Unchanged
AH1 (13% protein)	$345	Unchanged
AH2 (11.5% protein)	$340	Unchanged
AUH2 (Flat protein)	$323	Unchanged
APW1 (10.5% protein)	$330	Unchanged
ASW1 (Flat protein)	$315	Unchanged
AGP1 (Flat protein)	$305	Unchanged
AUW1 (Flat protein)	$280	Unchanged
HPS1 (Flat protein)	$300	Unchanged
AH9 (Flat protein)	$255	Unchanged
FED1 (Flat protein)	$242	Unchanged
SFW1 (Flat protein)	$270	Unchanged
DR1 (Flat protein)	$510	Unchanged
DR2 (Flat protein)	$468	Unchanged
DR3 (Flat protein)	$413	Unchanged
EASTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive):
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
DR1 (Flat protein)	$455	Unchanged
DR2 (Flat protein)	$430	Unchanged
DR3 (Flat protein)	$375	Unchanged
ADRF (Flat protein)	$250	Unchanged
WESTERN POOL - Estimated Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive):
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
AH1 (13% protein)	$341	Unchanged
AH2 (11.5% protein)	$335	Unchanged
AUH2 (Flat protein)	$316	Unchanged
APW2 (10% protein)	$325	Unchanged
ANW1 (Flat protein)	$318	Unchanged
ANW2 (Flat protein)	$303	Unchanged
APWT (10% protein)	$325	Unchanged
ASW1 (Flat protein)	$310	Unchanged
AGP1 (Flat protein)	$300	Unchanged
AUW1 (Flat protein)	$275	Unchanged
SFT1 (Flat protein)	$345	Unchanged
FED1 (Flat protein)	$235	Unchanged
DR1 (Flat protein)	$480	Unchanged
DR2 (Flat protein)	$450	Unchanged
DR3 (Flat protein)	$400	Unchanged
WESTERN POOL - Estimated Number Two Pool Return 2008/09 AWB Pool ($/t FOB, GST exclusive):
Pool Pay Grade Base Rate	Estimated Pool Return	Change
ANW1 (Flat protein)	$302	Unchanged
ANW2 (Flat protein)	$287	Unchanged

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