By Paige Hill

31^st October, 2023 

Harvest is rounding the home straight in Queensland and Northern New South Wales nearing 50-60%. Quality to date has been reflective of the seasonal conditions, with the lack of moisture contributing to grades milling around the centre of the quality chart, with ASW1/AUH2/APW1 the main grades being presented at bulk handling sites. 

Consumers have been engaged from the outset this season, with most now reporting to have good coverage out the curve through December, which will see opportunities for ex-farm and delivered marketing present themselves again in the New Year. This is however going to be a year to maintain engagement, as Central and Southern New South Wales producers are motivated sellers also, seeing value in these Northern New South Wales/Southern Queensland markets, and with higher yielding crops and good access to road freight, the expectation is that this grain will flow north all year. And whilst the dry conditions this season have established at floor in the market, these interstate supplies are having a capping effect on prices, with values expected to be range-bound for some time. Those who lock up their tonnes with the view to revisit them in January, may find that they end up executing them in March or April.

A trough is forecast over the east coast with weather models showing an estimated 40 – 50mls over Southern Queensland/Northern New South Wales regions with potential to move further south into New South Wales which will help get the ball rolling on summer crop prospects.

Internationally, reports that disruptions to Eastern European grain supply networks are easing saw wheat futures values soften slightly, however in the neighbouring corn and soybean pits, the focus on dry conditions in South Americas Soybeans had markets rallying, providing some neighbouring technical support. 

As the world watches fluctuations in global commodity prices and changing weather patterns, one area gaining increased focus within the industry is freight rates for Australian bulk transport. The decrease in demand for road freight over the last 6-8 months has led to cheaper freight rates which when combined with rising fuel prices is putting pressure on many freight providers.  Some fuel companies suggesting there is little relief in sight with Diesel prices estimated to reach as high as $2.50 by the end of the year. Freight providers are running trucks for little to no margin and in some cases at a loss to try and get through until new crop where they are hoping demand and rates will increase to sustainable levels.