WA Market Wrap

By Richard Beck

25th November, 2022 

 

Forecast total grain production is WA this season is likely to be around 24 million tonnes according to most industry commentators, similar to last year. After the typical early canola deliveries to Geraldton made in late September, harvest progress has been slow, particularly in the case of wheat and barley. Late maturing and high yielding canola crops have been keeping many growers occupied. Wheat and barley delivery tonnages are increasing and are likely to produce some impressive daily delivery tonnage by late November

Quality is generally good with canola oil contents typically above 46%. Wheat protein levels are lower than normal but not as low as might have been expected given the mild finish to the season and high yields.

While there has been isolated hail damage in WA and some weather delays, particularly in the south, the west has had a far more favourable start to harvest than much of the east coast. Significant areas of NSW and Victoria have been impacted by repeated rain events and flooding. There has been significant crop losses in NSW and to a lesser extent in Victoria. The main impact has been on quality with a high proportion of the wheat crop to be down-graded to feed.

Waterlogged paddocks are making trafficability and paddock access a problem for growers and damaged road and rail infrastructure are making movement of grain from farm to receival sites very challenging. The logistics issues and lack of harvest progress have added to volatility on the east coast with short term demand paying significant premiums over the general market prices.

Volatility has been a hallmark of all grain markets this year with prices of all grains moving sharply in response to news coming out of the Black Sea. With a significant proportion of world trade in agricultural commodities originating from this region volatility is likely to continue until there is a permanent resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Globally all grains look well supplied this year. A poor The Argentine wheat crop has been largely offset by higher production in Australia and Russia. While there has been some variability in corn production globally overall production will result in an increase in ending stocks this year. Looking ahead extremely dry conditions in the US winter wheat growing areas have reduced the planted area and are impacting crop establishment as winter dormancy approaches.