Predictions canola planting area will drop

By Brad Cullen

22nd February, 2023 

As February crosses its mid-point, it’s fair to say 2023 is absolutely flying. Getting away from the farm and enjoying the festive season has been but a pipe dream for many farmers as harvest has stretched into spraying, sheep jobs and track renovation - something the groundsmen at Nagpur seem to know a lot about! With seeding just around the corner and a decent bank of subsoil moisture established it seems all we require is a dash of moisture come May and we’re away once again.

At this point, it’s estimated that canola area will be down in 2023 (from a record high in 2022) to remain an above average planting. This is mainly because growers agronomically maxed out canola plantings last year and can’t do this again within their rotational structure. Pulses, wheat and barley will see increases in area for 2023 as well.

Shipping stems in the short term remains booked solid with Australian cereals, pulses and oilseeds all in demand globally.  It’s fair to note however that recent moves in international markets has seen global canola values fallen to a point where East Coast growers don’t see value in selling the oilseed and have largely been absent from local markets. This means longer term, it’s likely that canola boats won’t be booked from the East Coast of Australia. Solid demand still exists for feed grains however, and these will most likely replace the slots that might well have been canola boats.

Moving forward, with the pace slowing on East Coast canola shipments, it seems the void will be filled by EU and Ukraine production of oilseeds, if their production comes off ok. Even if we do have a dry year here in Australia, the carryover stocks in the EU and Canada will be more than sufficient to cover demand next year. It seems the world has noted the same trend we have seen with regards to high oilseed pricing, and have reacted accordingly – there’s an adage in grain marketing which certainly applies here – “nothing kills high prices like high prices”.