By James Urquhart

22^nd November, 2023 

The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria. With an earlier-than-usual start and relatively unchecked by weather, harvest has progressed at record pace with common reports of growers finishing the 23/24 harvest before last year’s start date. 

With the northern growing regions having wrapped up a disappointing winter crop, growers in those regions are eying off recent and forecasted rains with a smile, as it builds confidence in the upcoming summer cropping program. For those with more yet to harvest, the current weather pattern is somewhat worrying with the eight-day forecast for the east coast lit up with varying shades of greens and blues. Only time will tell whether the severity and the duration of this rain event impacts quality, or whether it simply provides an opportunity for growers to catch their breath.

Crop concerns in South America and parts of Europe have provided some bullish inputs for markets, however despite these issues and the projected cuts to production, global wheat supply estimates would appear to satisfy demand. Furthermore, it seems that as long as there is a functioning Black Sea export solution, futures markets are determined to continue their grind lower. Pleasingly however, local wheat markets have remained resilient to this point, despite strong engagement from the grower and a strengthening Aussie Dollar. Ongoing export enquiry and a challenging quality profile for domestic processors are providing a layer of support.

Feed barley markets are also holding firm and despite the relative abundance of malting quality barley being harvested, continues to offer decent premiums to malt grades. The ongoing strength of the market can be attributed the strong domestic feed demand as well as export demand, reinforced by the return of China to the Australian market.

The canola market continues its sideways movement as burdensome stocks both locally and in Europe weigh heavily on markets. However, in both major exchanges funds are short and any spark from production concerns in the Brazilian soybean crop could offer some upside. The Aussie grower has been somewhat disengaged from the market, appearing content to kick the can down the road for a while with alternative commodities for sale at more palatable pricing levels to generate cashflow.

At a local level, the next four weeks will be important for providing market guidance. Grower selling behaviour will undoubtedly bear influence and it is this second half of the harvest where we see some of this season’s larger production areas really get cranked up. More immediately, it is the weather that will be nervously watched for quality impacts. Any deviation from the current quality profile could see heightened demand for certain grades. I think most would agree a harvest largely complete by Christmas and without grain quality issues would be a welcome change from recent years.