Fortune favours the prepared
By Darcy Ingram
19th February, 2024
With recent global weather models suggesting an end to our somewhat confusing El Nino year and increasing the chance of a return to a typically wetter La Nina period, expectations are growing for a good supply of in-crop rainfall through 2024. Furthermore, most regions across the east coast of Australia will exit summer with a healthy subsoil moisture profile, meaning the odds of producing another above average winter crop are certainly in our favour.
When not waging a war against the weeds, growers have been busy working on final cropping plans for the upcoming year. While most will focus on their agronomic requirements and stick with usual rotations there is always the temptation for some opportune changes as growers attempt to determine what commodities to bet on for the highest rate of return. The abundant moisture will provide plenty of confidence for planting crops like canola however recent price action has left some asking whether it still provides the same level of value it has over the last couple of years.
Although we’ve seen some rallies along the way, prices for wheat, barley and canola have predominantly trended lower since late last year. Global values are struggling under the weight of abundant supplies and a lack of consistent, strong demand. Competition remains fierce for wheat exporters with Black Sea supplies continuing own a large portion of global demand. With their 2024 crop currently in good shape, Russia looks intent to shift as much of their surplus stocks as possible. Rumours of Russian authorities lowering the unofficial export price floor have seemingly been confirmed with offers from the region recently hitting four-year lows.
Local barley bids have fallen in tandem with wheat, predominantly driven by weakening demand as consumers choose to sit out as much as possible. Southern supplies and the arrival of a solid summer crop have provided ample coverage for domestic buyers further aided by a falling export market. Whilst having shown strong interest since returning to the Australian barley market, China has been quiet in recent months coinciding with the start of a large South American corn harvest. Currently absent from markets celebrating Chinese New Year, traders are struggling to uncover additional opportunity to justify moving bids higher.
Canola has endured a rocky ride in recent weeks with tightening European supplies being negated by the arrival of a large soybean crop in South America. Weather in key soybean growing regions has kept futures active however most rallies seem short-lived as heavy supply fundamentals eventually pull markets back.
We now appear to be moving into a period where, on paper, supply appears surplus to global demand. Crops in the northern hemisphere are far from made and there will be opportunities however, it is hard to see where any prolonged upside comes from today. Volatile markets can be extremely challenging and picking the peak certainly relies on an element of luck. Grower will need to be diligent with their marketing and look to sell in to rallies when they present themselves.
Global pressure weighs on grain markets

Grain Growers have been alerted to lower pricing prospects in recent times as we continue to see wheat prices dip since the start of the year. This is in line with general pressures in the grain markets caused primarily because of a massive corn crop..............
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across SA after a long and weather affected last part of what was a pretty decent harvest with excellent quality for the most part..........
Read MoreWA Market Wrap 20/02/24
The 23/24 WA grain harvest was over in a blink of an eye, particularly for the northern and eastern wheat belt where headers powered over the light crop, finishing in the first week of December..........
Read MoreA peek at how 2024 kicked off

With a scorcher this week across northern NSW and Southern QLD, the possibility of yet another cyclone bringing rain to central Queensland, those famous words “Droughts and Flooding Rains”, never seem truer than the start we are having to 2024............
Read MoreSorghum Update: Growth, Challenges and Global trends.

Abundant December rainfall has led to prosperous sorghum crops in the Darling Downs, with expectations of at least average yields, challenging the initial forecast of 21% decline in sorghum planted area for 2023–24 due to well-below-average soil moisture levels..........
Read MoreWheat quality holds up against widespread rain.

Like it or not, rainfall has been the order of the day for many parts of the country with winter crop still to harvest. Various locations through Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have received up to 200mls in the last couple of weeks........
Read MoreRain turns the tables on summer crop plantings.

One can only hope that after the big falls across the eastern cropping belt last week, that the BOM manages to get this week’s forecast right, and growers in Southern NSW and Victoria escape any significant additional rain..........
Read MoreRain welcome in the North with Sorghum set to be sown.

Storm conditions have provided welcome rainfall to areas of Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. With rainfall totals between 15-50mm in the last week and some areas receiving more than 100mm........
Read MoreHarvest progresses at record pace

The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria.......
Read MoreWA Market Wrap

The Western Australian harvest looks like being a quick one with a lot of light crops this year. Receivals in the Geraldton zone started in mid-September and a number of growers have already finished. Production expectations were not high given the lack of summer and growing season rain in most parts of the region......
Read MoreHarvest moves South

Queensland and Northern NSW have parked the headers and are done and dusted, while Central NSW is about 50% done. Southern NSW is seeing more headers in canola and barley paddocks, and we should start to see some activity in wheat paddocks sooner rather than later......
Read MoreHarvest well ahead of previous years

As we move further into November, harvest progresses at an incredibly rapid pace. Traditionally harvest would be 10% completed in the northern part of the Port Kembla zone by the end of the first week of November......
Read MoreAn update on harvest

Harvest is rounding the home straight in Queensland and Northern New South Wales nearing 50-60%. Quality to date has been reflective of the seasonal conditions, with the lack of moisture contributing to grades milling around the centre of the quality chart, with ASW1/AUH2/APW1 the main grades being presented at bulk handling sites......
Read MoreDry weather hits sorghum production.

The weather in recent weeks has generally been favourable to most grain producing regions. Areas in the north have seen clear weather allowing harvest to progress at perhaps a pace faster than many would like.....
Read MoreHarvest activity increase sees prices decrease

Harvest has now kicked off in most of the country’s northern cropping regions and as header activity rapidly moves south it won’t be long before we’re well and truly underway across all zones. Queensland growers are now stripping wheat as canola is making its way into receival sites as far south as the NSW Sturt Highway....
Read MoreRain makes grain

Its fair to say that a rain in spring is worth its weight in gold and last week we saw this come to fruition with reports of 15mm to 100mm+ recorded. In some regions, the rain came too late to add yield, however this one event will certainly lead to small grain size and pinched grain being a lot less common occurrence than it might have been, as crops were beginning to run out of moisture.....
Read MoreGlobal Wheat Production Estimates Lowered With Drier Outlook

Looks like September was one for the record books with what might have been the warmest and driest since records began, not to mention Collingwood tying with Essendon and Carlton with 16 grand final wins on the last day of the month....
Read MoreHow Time flies

It seems like only yesterday that we were celebrating a Geelong premiership, but 12 months has flown by and its Grand Final week again. It also feels like we only just put last year’s harvest to bed, but in the blink of an eye we are back at it again....
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