Too many lions, not enough shares
By Tyson Hosie
21st July, 2022
While the humanitarian aspect of the Eastern European situation remains terrible, it has undoubtedly provided very favourable market conditions for us here in Australia to participate in, when we would otherwise have felt more of the weight of back-to-back record production.
International futures markets have retraced significantly, largely due to the strong outflow of speculative money from these bourses on the back of an increasing expectation that an agreement will be arrived at between the Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish governments that will soon see the flow of Ukrainian grain to the world restart.
This is not the first the market has heard of such an arrangement, which was earlier met with skepticism, however this latest round of discussions seems to be gaining traction - good news for the Ukraine, however does have corrective ramifications for the broader market.
Domestically, Australia's east coast remains a mixed bag of planting progress, with agronomic norms being challenged.
Cold, wet conditions starting in southern Queensland stretch through NSW and into Victoria, and while agreeable in areas that were able to sneak in earlier planting efforts, there are many now in situations where the ground simply can't carry machinery, giving way to the expectation of a significantly larger summer cropping program.
This is problematic too, however, as many areas of north-west NSW and south-west Queensland are not renowned for their summer cropping programs due to the searing heat, and as mentioned, are more suited to go for winter cropping programs when the ground moisture is there to use.
In this situation they can take a use it or lose it attitude. At the same time there are cashflow considerations. It's a long time between drinks for winter only programs, especially for those who lost production due to flooding in late 2021 and early 2022.
Season bodes well for most grain growers
As we approach the mid-point of the winter months, the Australian crop conditions are for the most part, well setup right across the country.Read More
Grain prices go for elevator ride
The saying goes that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down, which suggests that markets tend to fall faster than they rise.Read More
Grain growers welcome improved conditions
Never in recent history has it felt like the ag commodities market has exhibited such volatility in such a short space of time.Read More
Consistent wet spell adds to 'normal' year
In what we used to call a ‘normal’ year, the end of June has quite commonly been associated with the conclusion of the winter sowing program.Read More
Weather woes as market slows
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently released its June report, tipping Australia to produce its fourth largest winter crop on record at 50.9 million tonnes.Read More
Cash markets shiver along with the growers
As much of the country shivers through a cold blast, one could be mistaken for thinking the weather had somehow managed to take the heat out of cash markets as well.Read More
A quieter week at the Chiropractors Clinic
Of late, it would seem, a market-moving event was a daily occurence, with both domestic and international commodity values reacting accordingly.Read More
Grains market lifts in face of season’s challenges
International wheat futures have consolidated this week after rallying last week on the back of India’s decision to abruptly ban exports.
Indian export ban causes import headaches
The global market caught a shock late last week when India announced an abrupt ban on its wheat exports on May 14.Read More
A logistical nightmare
The recent harvest provided a physical and emotional rollercoaster with the highlights of big yields and strong pricing counterbalanced by persistent harvest rains and the subsequent delays and quality issues.Read More
Oilseed demand lifts acreage
Significant increases to crop input prices hasn't slowed the efforts to plant this year's winter crop as almost the entire east coast has been gifted a well-timed and wide-spread autumn break.Read More
Optimal conditions align for winter crop
As sowing programs across the country ramp up on what for the most part is a full moisture profile, Australian farmers look primed to capitalize on record prices for their product.Read More
Where to from here
In recent months 'volatile' seems to have been the word of choice to try and describe grain market movements and, given we unfortunately don't appear any closer to a resolution to the crisis in Ukraine, it appears this description is likely to remain popular for some time yet.Read More
Existing world grains issues persist
Another week rolls by and another round of inputs into the discussion, more forcibly argued depending on the side of the fence you sit, seller or buyer.Read More
Watching for the flashes
Without a meaningful resolution in sight for the crisis in Ukraine, the market continues to trade under the expectation that disruptions to Black Sea grains and oilseeds will be felt for a while yet, increasing the requirement for alternative origins to step up and fill the shortfall.Read More
Sowing intentions start to emerge
International markets continue to trade erratically on the back of expected supply chain disruptions due to the situation in Ukraine. Whilst we all hope for a swift end to the conflict, it is impossible to predict how things will progress and as such international markets continue to trade volatile ranges on a daily basis.Read More