Commodity Market Trends
By James Massina
13th March, 2024
Values for most commodities have been on the slide in recent weeks, some more so than others. Depending on your location, wheat is down anywhere from $50-$80/mt since harvest, barley down slightly and canola, whilst it has had its ups and downs is also below prices seen at harvest. Understandably grower engagement has been sporadic in this period with growers grappling with lower prices. Growers are historically undersold on all commodities with canola the real standout with a lot of tonnes still sitting in the BHC system and on farm. Typically, by this time of year 80% of canola would have already been sold however the number this year is considerably lower than that. Tonnes are trading on the ‘up’ days with $640-$650/mt delivered Newcastle getting engagement from the grower.
From a wheat perspective, demand from both the export and domestic customer has been largely absent of late. Couple that with a new crop market that has been under noticeable pressure, the old crop market is getting pushed down with it. Soil moisture levels through much of the east coast are plentiful with planting not too far away. Rumours that China has cancelled US purchases of wheat, and European values that seem to push lower every day are providing the impetus for our markets to move in tandem with global values. Barley is a slightly different story with values seemingly having found a floor and holding up relatively well compared to wheat.
Sorghum harvest is starting to gain momentum and from a pricing perspective, looks expensive into the domestic market at current values. With values only $10-$20/mt under barley and wheat, there will need to be demand from the export customer to maintain current values. And with many crop forecasts now exceeding 2Mmt, we will need a reasonable sized bulk and container program to achieve this. Quality so far has been very good, and this is expected to continue barring any significant widespread weather event that is not currently on the forecast.
As sowing approaches and provided soil moisture levels remain ample, the expectation is unsold tonnes will continue to come to market and meet prevailing market prices. There will invariably be cereals kept on farm and carried post June as a financial strategy, and a drought hedge. The market since harvest has so far not been friendly to those carrying grain however opportunities to exit these positions will invariably present over coming months. Whether we see values similar or better than harvest remains to be seen.
Technology aids decision making

With Summer coming to an end and Autumn upon us, growers along the east coast have turned their attention to the 24/25 season and are beginning to put their cropping plans in place. With commodity prices fluctuating more than ever, the decision-making process around how growers decide to sow which crops, has become one of great interest..............
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Grain Growers have been alerted to lower pricing prospects in recent times as we continue to see wheat prices dip since the start of the year. This is in line with general pressures in the grain markets caused primarily because of a massive corn crop..............
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Harvest has finally wrapped up across the East Coast, with the final headers shutting down in late January. All grower attention is now focused on moisture retention and ground preparation for winter crops, with only 6-8 weeks until the first early winter crops are sown............
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In the context of climate change, agriculture provides both a challenge and an opportunity. As the agricultural sector, and its customers in the food manufacturing industry, explore sustainable solutions to meet their climate goals, the concept of carbon insets in agriculture emerges as an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon from the atmosphere............
Read MoreFortune favours the prepared

With recent global weather models suggesting an end to our somewhat confusing El Nino year and increasing the chance of a return to a typically wetter La Nina period, expectations are growing for a good supply of in-crop rainfall through 2024...........
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across SA after a long and weather affected last part of what was a pretty decent harvest with excellent quality for the most part..........
Read MoreWA Market Wrap 20/02/24
The 23/24 WA grain harvest was over in a blink of an eye, particularly for the northern and eastern wheat belt where headers powered over the light crop, finishing in the first week of December..........
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With a scorcher this week across northern NSW and Southern QLD, the possibility of yet another cyclone bringing rain to central Queensland, those famous words “Droughts and Flooding Rains”, never seem truer than the start we are having to 2024............
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Abundant December rainfall has led to prosperous sorghum crops in the Darling Downs, with expectations of at least average yields, challenging the initial forecast of 21% decline in sorghum planted area for 2023–24 due to well-below-average soil moisture levels..........
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Like it or not, rainfall has been the order of the day for many parts of the country with winter crop still to harvest. Various locations through Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have received up to 200mls in the last couple of weeks........
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One can only hope that after the big falls across the eastern cropping belt last week, that the BOM manages to get this week’s forecast right, and growers in Southern NSW and Victoria escape any significant additional rain..........
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Storm conditions have provided welcome rainfall to areas of Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. With rainfall totals between 15-50mm in the last week and some areas receiving more than 100mm........
Read MoreHarvest progresses at record pace

The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria.......
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The Western Australian harvest looks like being a quick one with a lot of light crops this year. Receivals in the Geraldton zone started in mid-September and a number of growers have already finished. Production expectations were not high given the lack of summer and growing season rain in most parts of the region......
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Queensland and Northern NSW have parked the headers and are done and dusted, while Central NSW is about 50% done. Southern NSW is seeing more headers in canola and barley paddocks, and we should start to see some activity in wheat paddocks sooner rather than later......
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The weather in recent weeks has generally been favourable to most grain producing regions. Areas in the north have seen clear weather allowing harvest to progress at perhaps a pace faster than many would like.....
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Harvest has now kicked off in most of the country’s northern cropping regions and as header activity rapidly moves south it won’t be long before we’re well and truly underway across all zones. Queensland growers are now stripping wheat as canola is making its way into receival sites as far south as the NSW Sturt Highway....
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