Rain- A Double Edged Sword
By James Urquhart
10th April, 2024
The Easter Bunny delivered more than just chocolate eggs this year, finding time in the schedule to deliver a weather system that has ultimately provided most of the east coast with varying degrees of an autumn break. For those gearing up for a winter crop plant, the rains have been welcomed with open arms as it delivers a textbook start to the season. Whilst some will wait for the official ANZAC day starters gun, those planting larger programs or grazing varieties have taken the opportunity to make a start growing this years’ crop.
With the timely break to the season and healthy subsoil moisture levels providing optimism, grower’s crop rotation plans are expected to proceed relatively well as planned. Having gained about $60 per tonne in the last month the canola market has done some work to retain acres and with wheat experiencing a similar degree of price movement in the opposite direction, canola now satisfies the rule of thumb offering prices double that of wheat. Chickpeas are also expected to make a return to favour with prices having made strong headway alongside more promising seasonal conditions than recent years.
The post-harvest price chart for wheat paints a disappointing picture for growers, as offshore futures markets have spent recent months eroding under pressure of comfortable global supplies and a relentless Russian export program. Whilst timely season-opening rains here adds confidence to Aussie production, there are several northern hemisphere wheat crops that remain under a question mark and the market will be in weather-watching mode now for a period of time. Any significant production issue could see some volatility, particularly given the sizeable short position held by market participants. With plenty of last season’s grain still unsold, the local grower will also be watching closely, looking for any selling opportunities to recoup some of the lost territory.
What the rain gives with one hand, it takes some away with the other, for a significant chunk of this seasons promising summer crop remains on the stalk, wet and getting wetter. Sorghum crops that were harvested before the rain were setting new records but with now multiple heavy rain events on them, they are quickly losing yield and quality. It is anticipated that the later portion of the crop will handle and even thrive under the wet conditions, but these next few weeks will undoubtedly be challenging for those with mature crops.
Rain can be a double-edged sword and whilst there has been some immediate damage done to summer crops, it is a rare farmer to be heard complaining about rain in April. The overwhelming impact of the Easter rains is positive, and it is hard to recall a season where the vast majority of the east coast has been as well setup with subsoil moisture, a widespread Autumn break and an increasingly positive outlook for the long-term forecast.
Canola Prices Rally Amid Global Factors
Last week we saw more canola sellers come out of the woodwork as prices continued to rally for canola, recovering to levels not seen since mid-November. A number of factors contributed to the rally, fueled by Stats Canada reporting a 3% decrease in expected planted area....
Read MoreU.S China Wheat Trade Tensions Drive Market Decline
US wheat led the falls on the news developing that China has supposedly cancelled or rolled several Australian wheat cargoes, adding to the cancellation from US exporters last week. The ASX May wheat contract was down A$3/t to $318.50/t on Friday as the responded to reports of China cancellations......
Read MoreCommodity Market Trends
Values for most commodities have been on the slide in recent weeks, some more so than others. Depending on your location, wheat is down anywhere from $50-$80/mt since harvest, barley down slightly and canola, whilst it has had its ups and downs is also below prices seen at harvest...............
Read MoreTechnology aids decision making
With Summer coming to an end and Autumn upon us, growers along the east coast have turned their attention to the 24/25 season and are beginning to put their cropping plans in place. With commodity prices fluctuating more than ever, the decision-making process around how growers decide to sow which crops, has become one of great interest..............
Read MoreGlobal pressure weighs on grain markets
Grain Growers have been alerted to lower pricing prospects in recent times as we continue to see wheat prices dip since the start of the year. This is in line with general pressures in the grain markets caused primarily because of a massive corn crop..............
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices
Harvest has finally wrapped up across the East Coast, with the final headers shutting down in late January. All grower attention is now focused on moisture retention and ground preparation for winter crops, with only 6-8 weeks until the first early winter crops are sown............
Read MoreThe role of Carbon Markets in the Australian grain industry
In the context of climate change, agriculture provides both a challenge and an opportunity. As the agricultural sector, and its customers in the food manufacturing industry, explore sustainable solutions to meet their climate goals, the concept of carbon insets in agriculture emerges as an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon from the atmosphere............
Read MoreFortune favours the prepared
With recent global weather models suggesting an end to our somewhat confusing El Nino year and increasing the chance of a return to a typically wetter La Nina period, expectations are growing for a good supply of in-crop rainfall through 2024...........
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices
Harvest has finally wrapped up across SA after a long and weather affected last part of what was a pretty decent harvest with excellent quality for the most part..........
Read MoreWA Market Wrap 20/02/24
The 23/24 WA grain harvest was over in a blink of an eye, particularly for the northern and eastern wheat belt where headers powered over the light crop, finishing in the first week of December..........
Read MoreA peek at how 2024 kicked off
With a scorcher this week across northern NSW and Southern QLD, the possibility of yet another cyclone bringing rain to central Queensland, those famous words “Droughts and Flooding Rains”, never seem truer than the start we are having to 2024............
Read MoreSorghum Update: Growth, Challenges and Global trends.
Abundant December rainfall has led to prosperous sorghum crops in the Darling Downs, with expectations of at least average yields, challenging the initial forecast of 21% decline in sorghum planted area for 2023–24 due to well-below-average soil moisture levels..........
Read MoreWheat quality holds up against widespread rain.
Like it or not, rainfall has been the order of the day for many parts of the country with winter crop still to harvest. Various locations through Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have received up to 200mls in the last couple of weeks........
Read MoreRain turns the tables on summer crop plantings.
One can only hope that after the big falls across the eastern cropping belt last week, that the BOM manages to get this week’s forecast right, and growers in Southern NSW and Victoria escape any significant additional rain..........
Read MoreRain welcome in the North with Sorghum set to be sown.
Storm conditions have provided welcome rainfall to areas of Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. With rainfall totals between 15-50mm in the last week and some areas receiving more than 100mm........
Read MoreHarvest progresses at record pace
The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria.......
Read MoreWA Market Wrap
The Western Australian harvest looks like being a quick one with a lot of light crops this year. Receivals in the Geraldton zone started in mid-September and a number of growers have already finished. Production expectations were not high given the lack of summer and growing season rain in most parts of the region......
Read MoreHarvest moves South
Queensland and Northern NSW have parked the headers and are done and dusted, while Central NSW is about 50% done. Southern NSW is seeing more headers in canola and barley paddocks, and we should start to see some activity in wheat paddocks sooner rather than later......
Read MoreHarvest well ahead of previous years
As we move further into November, harvest progresses at an incredibly rapid pace. Traditionally harvest would be 10% completed in the northern part of the Port Kembla zone by the end of the first week of November......
Read MoreAn update on harvest
Harvest is rounding the home straight in Queensland and Northern New South Wales nearing 50-60%. Quality to date has been reflective of the seasonal conditions, with the lack of moisture contributing to grades milling around the centre of the quality chart, with ASW1/AUH2/APW1 the main grades being presented at bulk handling sites......
Read MoreDry weather hits sorghum production.
The weather in recent weeks has generally been favourable to most grain producing regions. Areas in the north have seen clear weather allowing harvest to progress at perhaps a pace faster than many would like.....
Read MoreHarvest activity increase sees prices decrease
Harvest has now kicked off in most of the country’s northern cropping regions and as header activity rapidly moves south it won’t be long before we’re well and truly underway across all zones. Queensland growers are now stripping wheat as canola is making its way into receival sites as far south as the NSW Sturt Highway....
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