May Market Insights
By James Massina
6th May, 2024
As we move into the month of May and sowing, there has been no shortage of headlines from around the world for commentators to peg market moves to. Whether that be conflict in the Middle East, Russia and the Ukraine, weather in the northern hemisphere generally, holidays in parts of Asia, or economists discussing interest rates and the ensuing impact on currencies, it’s been an eventful couple of weeks. Futures in those markets have been tracking accordingly however the effect on cash markets in Australia has been more subdued.
Old crop markets have remained firm through most of the East Coast despite offshore markets settling back from their recent rally. After an initial increase in grower engagement, wheat and barley through Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland have generally been refusing to follow offshore markets. As many growers’ attention has switched to sowing, harvest or picking summer crops, the liquidity from the farmer has slowed as the trade and consumer remain on the bid. The consumptive demand in the northern part of the country has primarily been in the deferred period however sporadic requirements for May and June are still popping up. The domestic consumer in the south is having to compete with the export market adding to the challenge in that region.
The sorghum harvest continues despite some weather delays and concerns around quality. There have been numerous reports of sprouting issues ranging from the not at all to up to fifty per cent in some cases. The markets for this quality of sorghum have been as varied as the quality itself. Domestic consumers in Southern Queensland have been picking up off-grade sorghum for as little as $250/mt whilst cash bids for genuine sorghum two have been reflective of a $20-$30/mt discount to the primary grade. Tonnes continue to flow into both the domestic and export markets, albeit the export has primarily been into containers, and with China back from holidays this week, we could see a renewed interest for our sorghum. We will need the export demand to continue to maintain current values as current wheat/sorghum spreads are too narrow to facilitate any significant inclusion in domestic feed rations.
Canola markets have seen the largest changes over the last week or two with East Cost bids trading a $20/mt range in that time. Concerns over the escalating issues in the Middle East sparked the rally however attention was soon switched to weather. The most notable input being excessive rainfall for parts of Brazil putting question marks over the extent of damage to the soy bean crop being harvested there. The rally in overseas markets flowed to Australian cash bids for canola allowing growers carrying old crop an opportunity to sell out of some of that position, and also some small volumes of new crop trade.
Dry conditions driving markets

Australian grain prices have seen a welcome bounce in recent days largely attributed to overseas market support. With a general smorgasbord of inputs to consider it can be hard to pinpoint the exact driver of markets on any given day however, after a relatively......
Read MoreSowing in full swing

In a blink of an eye harvest has gone for another season and sowing is well and truly underway for growers across the country. The sowing of Australia’s 24-25 crops is full steam ahead amidst a mixed of conditions......
Read MoreWinter Crop Sowing Outlook

The window for winter crop sowing is now underway across large parts of New South Wales and Queensland, with Victoria not far off starting. Above average summer rainfall across large parts of the east coast has allowed for sufficient buildup of sub soil moisture reserves.....
Read MoreRain- A Double Edged Sword

The Easter Bunny delivered more than just chocolate eggs this year, finding time in the schedule to deliver a weather system that has ultimately provided most of the east coast with varying degrees of an autumn break. For those gearing up for a winter crop plant, the rains ....
Read MoreCanola Prices Rally Amid Global Factors

Last week we saw more canola sellers come out of the woodwork as prices continued to rally for canola, recovering to levels not seen since mid-November. A number of factors contributed to the rally, fueled by Stats Canada reporting a 3% decrease in expected planted area....
Read MoreU.S China Wheat Trade Tensions Drive Market Decline

US wheat led the falls on the news developing that China has supposedly cancelled or rolled several Australian wheat cargoes, adding to the cancellation from US exporters last week. The ASX May wheat contract was down A$3/t to $318.50/t on Friday as the responded to reports of China cancellations......
Read MoreCommodity Market Trends

Values for most commodities have been on the slide in recent weeks, some more so than others. Depending on your location, wheat is down anywhere from $50-$80/mt since harvest, barley down slightly and canola, whilst it has had its ups and downs is also below prices seen at harvest...............
Read MoreTechnology aids decision making

With Summer coming to an end and Autumn upon us, growers along the east coast have turned their attention to the 24/25 season and are beginning to put their cropping plans in place. With commodity prices fluctuating more than ever, the decision-making process around how growers decide to sow which crops, has become one of great interest..............
Read MoreGlobal pressure weighs on grain markets

Grain Growers have been alerted to lower pricing prospects in recent times as we continue to see wheat prices dip since the start of the year. This is in line with general pressures in the grain markets caused primarily because of a massive corn crop..............
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across the East Coast, with the final headers shutting down in late January. All grower attention is now focused on moisture retention and ground preparation for winter crops, with only 6-8 weeks until the first early winter crops are sown............
Read MoreThe role of Carbon Markets in the Australian grain industry

In the context of climate change, agriculture provides both a challenge and an opportunity. As the agricultural sector, and its customers in the food manufacturing industry, explore sustainable solutions to meet their climate goals, the concept of carbon insets in agriculture emerges as an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon from the atmosphere............
Read MoreFortune favours the prepared

With recent global weather models suggesting an end to our somewhat confusing El Nino year and increasing the chance of a return to a typically wetter La Nina period, expectations are growing for a good supply of in-crop rainfall through 2024...........
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across SA after a long and weather affected last part of what was a pretty decent harvest with excellent quality for the most part..........
Read MoreWA Market Wrap 20/02/24
The 23/24 WA grain harvest was over in a blink of an eye, particularly for the northern and eastern wheat belt where headers powered over the light crop, finishing in the first week of December..........
Read MoreA peek at how 2024 kicked off

With a scorcher this week across northern NSW and Southern QLD, the possibility of yet another cyclone bringing rain to central Queensland, those famous words “Droughts and Flooding Rains”, never seem truer than the start we are having to 2024............
Read MoreSorghum Update: Growth, Challenges and Global trends.

Abundant December rainfall has led to prosperous sorghum crops in the Darling Downs, with expectations of at least average yields, challenging the initial forecast of 21% decline in sorghum planted area for 2023–24 due to well-below-average soil moisture levels..........
Read MoreWheat quality holds up against widespread rain.

Like it or not, rainfall has been the order of the day for many parts of the country with winter crop still to harvest. Various locations through Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have received up to 200mls in the last couple of weeks........
Read MoreRain turns the tables on summer crop plantings.

One can only hope that after the big falls across the eastern cropping belt last week, that the BOM manages to get this week’s forecast right, and growers in Southern NSW and Victoria escape any significant additional rain..........
Read MoreRain welcome in the North with Sorghum set to be sown.

Storm conditions have provided welcome rainfall to areas of Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. With rainfall totals between 15-50mm in the last week and some areas receiving more than 100mm........
Read MoreHarvest progresses at record pace

The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria.......
Read MoreWA Market Wrap

The Western Australian harvest looks like being a quick one with a lot of light crops this year. Receivals in the Geraldton zone started in mid-September and a number of growers have already finished. Production expectations were not high given the lack of summer and growing season rain in most parts of the region......
Read MoreHarvest moves South

Queensland and Northern NSW have parked the headers and are done and dusted, while Central NSW is about 50% done. Southern NSW is seeing more headers in canola and barley paddocks, and we should start to see some activity in wheat paddocks sooner rather than later......
Read MoreHarvest well ahead of previous years

As we move further into November, harvest progresses at an incredibly rapid pace. Traditionally harvest would be 10% completed in the northern part of the Port Kembla zone by the end of the first week of November......
Read MoreAn update on harvest

Harvest is rounding the home straight in Queensland and Northern New South Wales nearing 50-60%. Quality to date has been reflective of the seasonal conditions, with the lack of moisture contributing to grades milling around the centre of the quality chart, with ASW1/AUH2/APW1 the main grades being presented at bulk handling sites......
Read MoreDry weather hits sorghum production.

The weather in recent weeks has generally been favourable to most grain producing regions. Areas in the north have seen clear weather allowing harvest to progress at perhaps a pace faster than many would like.....
Read MoreHarvest activity increase sees prices decrease

Harvest has now kicked off in most of the country’s northern cropping regions and as header activity rapidly moves south it won’t be long before we’re well and truly underway across all zones. Queensland growers are now stripping wheat as canola is making its way into receival sites as far south as the NSW Sturt Highway....
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