Global Grain Markets
By Chris Johnson
21st May, 2024
With the USDA report from a fortnight ago well and truly digested, international markets continue to trade the volatile weather market that usually arrives as the Northern Hemisphere Spring comes to an end. Wheat markets are trading the continued dryness and risk of frost in Russia, along with general dryness in the Southern Plains of the US. Driving the market up today, down tomorrow on any forecast for a fall of rain, or above average temperatures. Corn and Soy planting has slowed in the US, as the central and eastern states suffer under damp waterlogged conditions slowing planting pace, and with further rain forecast for this week, it's likely that planting start lagging both the 5 year and long-term average planting pace.
Locally, planting in NSW and Qld continues to kick along. Intermittent interruptions, a couple of weeks back saw the planters parked up for a day or two. The break in proceedings was probably what the agronomists ordered, given planting progress was moving along at an impressive pace. With canola planting wound up, Barley will need only another week to finish up, and wheat won’t be far behind for most. Planting in Victoria has been continuing, but it has been going in dry for most and a reasonable rain event is going to be needed to get this crop out of the ground and join up the good subsoil moisture. Similarly in SA & WA most of the crop is in the ground dry, and without some meaningful rain events soon, a lot of that hard work may prove fruitless.
Sorghum harvesting is turning into a long and drawn-out process, with good harvesting hours per day down as low as 3-4 hours on the Liverpool Plains. Those with access to drying facilities may be kicking on a little longer, but with no rain on the forecast the less drying you have to do the better. Quality remains good, with the SORS & SORX dramas of March and April a distant memory for most. A reasonable amount of the later planted crop still has a few weeks to go before its harvested. Delivered Newcastle and Downs packing market prices continue to stay firm for the May/June delivery window.
Domestic wheat and barley prices continue to trade at similar numbers into the northern feedlot markets. With growers busy on planters, there continues to be limited selling engagement. Stronger export prices in the Kembla and Melbourne port zones for both wheat and barley will continue to provide a floor for prices in the north with both trading around the $405-$415/mt for June/July delivery.
Old crop Canola prices have continued to be quite choppy. The impact of flooding in Brazil affecting soybeans, and reductions in the Ukraine and EU production, offset by improved production outlook in Canada. Our new crop prices have continued to firm, but we are yet to see any significant selling from growers on the east coast, who seem happy to see the crop a little further established, before committing to sales.
Eastern Australia's Winter Crop Progress

As we hit the halfway point in May, there has been rapid progress in the sowing of eastern Australia’s winter crop, although some areas of the northern region are too wet to keep planting winter crops and harvesting summer ones......
Read MoreMay Market Insights

As we move into the month of May and sowing, there has been no shortage of headlines from around the world for commentators to peg market moves to.......
Read MoreDry conditions driving markets

Australian grain prices have seen a welcome bounce in recent days largely attributed to overseas market support. With a general smorgasbord of inputs to consider it can be hard to pinpoint the exact driver of markets on any given day however, after a relatively......
Read MoreSowing in full swing

In a blink of an eye harvest has gone for another season and sowing is well and truly underway for growers across the country. The sowing of Australia’s 24-25 crops is full steam ahead amidst a mixed of conditions......
Read MoreWinter Crop Sowing Outlook

The window for winter crop sowing is now underway across large parts of New South Wales and Queensland, with Victoria not far off starting. Above average summer rainfall across large parts of the east coast has allowed for sufficient buildup of sub soil moisture reserves.....
Read MoreRain- A Double Edged Sword

The Easter Bunny delivered more than just chocolate eggs this year, finding time in the schedule to deliver a weather system that has ultimately provided most of the east coast with varying degrees of an autumn break. For those gearing up for a winter crop plant, the rains ....
Read MoreCanola Prices Rally Amid Global Factors

Last week we saw more canola sellers come out of the woodwork as prices continued to rally for canola, recovering to levels not seen since mid-November. A number of factors contributed to the rally, fueled by Stats Canada reporting a 3% decrease in expected planted area....
Read MoreU.S China Wheat Trade Tensions Drive Market Decline

US wheat led the falls on the news developing that China has supposedly cancelled or rolled several Australian wheat cargoes, adding to the cancellation from US exporters last week. The ASX May wheat contract was down A$3/t to $318.50/t on Friday as the responded to reports of China cancellations......
Read MoreCommodity Market Trends

Values for most commodities have been on the slide in recent weeks, some more so than others. Depending on your location, wheat is down anywhere from $50-$80/mt since harvest, barley down slightly and canola, whilst it has had its ups and downs is also below prices seen at harvest...............
Read MoreTechnology aids decision making

With Summer coming to an end and Autumn upon us, growers along the east coast have turned their attention to the 24/25 season and are beginning to put their cropping plans in place. With commodity prices fluctuating more than ever, the decision-making process around how growers decide to sow which crops, has become one of great interest..............
Read MoreGlobal pressure weighs on grain markets

Grain Growers have been alerted to lower pricing prospects in recent times as we continue to see wheat prices dip since the start of the year. This is in line with general pressures in the grain markets caused primarily because of a massive corn crop..............
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across the East Coast, with the final headers shutting down in late January. All grower attention is now focused on moisture retention and ground preparation for winter crops, with only 6-8 weeks until the first early winter crops are sown............
Read MoreThe role of Carbon Markets in the Australian grain industry

In the context of climate change, agriculture provides both a challenge and an opportunity. As the agricultural sector, and its customers in the food manufacturing industry, explore sustainable solutions to meet their climate goals, the concept of carbon insets in agriculture emerges as an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon from the atmosphere............
Read MoreFortune favours the prepared

With recent global weather models suggesting an end to our somewhat confusing El Nino year and increasing the chance of a return to a typically wetter La Nina period, expectations are growing for a good supply of in-crop rainfall through 2024...........
Read MoreUS grain report hits Australian prices

Harvest has finally wrapped up across SA after a long and weather affected last part of what was a pretty decent harvest with excellent quality for the most part..........
Read MoreWA Market Wrap 20/02/24
The 23/24 WA grain harvest was over in a blink of an eye, particularly for the northern and eastern wheat belt where headers powered over the light crop, finishing in the first week of December..........
Read MoreA peek at how 2024 kicked off

With a scorcher this week across northern NSW and Southern QLD, the possibility of yet another cyclone bringing rain to central Queensland, those famous words “Droughts and Flooding Rains”, never seem truer than the start we are having to 2024............
Read MoreSorghum Update: Growth, Challenges and Global trends.

Abundant December rainfall has led to prosperous sorghum crops in the Darling Downs, with expectations of at least average yields, challenging the initial forecast of 21% decline in sorghum planted area for 2023–24 due to well-below-average soil moisture levels..........
Read MoreWheat quality holds up against widespread rain.

Like it or not, rainfall has been the order of the day for many parts of the country with winter crop still to harvest. Various locations through Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have received up to 200mls in the last couple of weeks........
Read MoreRain turns the tables on summer crop plantings.

One can only hope that after the big falls across the eastern cropping belt last week, that the BOM manages to get this week’s forecast right, and growers in Southern NSW and Victoria escape any significant additional rain..........
Read MoreRain welcome in the North with Sorghum set to be sown.

Storm conditions have provided welcome rainfall to areas of Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. With rainfall totals between 15-50mm in the last week and some areas receiving more than 100mm........
Read MoreHarvest progresses at record pace

The Aussie winter crop harvest is about halfway toward completion, with plenty of grain still on the stalk in the southern parts of Western Australia, South Australia and New South Wales as well as the bulk of Victoria.......
Read MoreWA Market Wrap

The Western Australian harvest looks like being a quick one with a lot of light crops this year. Receivals in the Geraldton zone started in mid-September and a number of growers have already finished. Production expectations were not high given the lack of summer and growing season rain in most parts of the region......
Read MoreHarvest moves South

Queensland and Northern NSW have parked the headers and are done and dusted, while Central NSW is about 50% done. Southern NSW is seeing more headers in canola and barley paddocks, and we should start to see some activity in wheat paddocks sooner rather than later......
Read MoreHarvest well ahead of previous years

As we move further into November, harvest progresses at an incredibly rapid pace. Traditionally harvest would be 10% completed in the northern part of the Port Kembla zone by the end of the first week of November......
Read MoreAn update on harvest

Harvest is rounding the home straight in Queensland and Northern New South Wales nearing 50-60%. Quality to date has been reflective of the seasonal conditions, with the lack of moisture contributing to grades milling around the centre of the quality chart, with ASW1/AUH2/APW1 the main grades being presented at bulk handling sites......
Read MoreDry weather hits sorghum production.

The weather in recent weeks has generally been favourable to most grain producing regions. Areas in the north have seen clear weather allowing harvest to progress at perhaps a pace faster than many would like.....
Read MoreHarvest activity increase sees prices decrease

Harvest has now kicked off in most of the country’s northern cropping regions and as header activity rapidly moves south it won’t be long before we’re well and truly underway across all zones. Queensland growers are now stripping wheat as canola is making its way into receival sites as far south as the NSW Sturt Highway....
Read More